Abingdon and Oxford North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Abingdon and Oxford North: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area:Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:77,268
Turnout:75.5%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON26,29545.1%
LIB24,15541.4%
LAB6,93011.9%
UKIP8411.4%
Green860.1%
OTH70.0%
CON Majority2,1403.7%

See overview of other seats in South East.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Abingdon and Oxford North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Abingdon and Oxford North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Abingdon and Oxford North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Henley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Henley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HenleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellKirtlington2,346Abingdon and Oxford North1,04846017463340071,786
CherwellOtmoor1,967Oxfordshire East1,08318814916280051,469
South OxfordshireBenson and Crowmarsh5,716Oxfordshire East2,7519279526116000344,885
South OxfordshireBerinsfield2,846Oxfordshire East1,251741264389300162,403
South OxfordshireChalgrove2,643Oxfordshire East1,06633754628360082,021
South OxfordshireChinnor6,118Oxfordshire East2,940684644627600244,430
South OxfordshireForest Hill and Holton2,688Oxfordshire East1,09344351927430072,132
South OxfordshireGarsington and Horspath2,752Oxfordshire East1,17953324632810082,079
South OxfordshireGoring2,991Oxfordshire East1,301382349268700162,161
South OxfordshireHaseley Brook3,062Oxfordshire East1,52742432825400072,351
South OxfordshireHenley-on-Thames8,318Oxfordshire East3,8151,453799289342001196,817
South OxfordshireKidmore End and Whitchurch2,789Oxfordshire East1,374362237239300452,134
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams2,159Oxfordshire East95339429721710061,742
South OxfordshireSonning Common5,214Oxfordshire East2,7707915225214100194,295
South OxfordshireThame8,847Oxfordshire East3,4511,5851,24723021200266,751
South OxfordshireWatlington2,955Oxfordshire East1,551398250259000102,324
South OxfordshireWheatley3,023Oxfordshire East1,16859339880500092,298
South OxfordshireWoodcote and Rotherfield6,244Oxfordshire East3,4277605635718700255,019
 Total72,678 33,74811,4558,4841,1551,8640039157,097

The full details of these calculations are given on the Henley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Oxford West and Abingdon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Oxford West and Abingdon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Oxford West and AbingdonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellKidlington North3,973Abingdon and Oxford North1,3793791,2617400003,093
CherwellKidlington South6,112Abingdon and Oxford North2,2166821,66911000004,677
CherwellYarnton, Gosford and Water Eaton4,047Abingdon and Oxford North1,4622718842900002,646
OxfordJericho and Osney4,040Oxford1,1311,1261,5202000003,797
OxfordNorth2,936Oxford1,0197921,5051800003,334
OxfordSt Margaret's2,965Abingdon and Oxford North1,0845851,4101600003,095
OxfordSummertown4,197Abingdon and Oxford North1,3145132,2362200004,085
OxfordWolvercote4,281Abingdon and Oxford North1,2833411,6861900003,329
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Abbey Northcourt4,333Abingdon and Oxford North1,5184141,5752500003,532
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Caldecott5,083Abingdon and Oxford North1,8495051,7288800004,170
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Dunmore4,545Abingdon and Oxford North1,6712601,5222900003,482
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Fitzharris4,616Abingdon and Oxford North1,6563801,5483500003,619
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Peachcroft5,178Abingdon and Oxford North1,8153561,7169000003,977
Vale of White HorseBotley and Sunningwell4,240Abingdon and Oxford North1,3742801,6395900003,352
Vale of White HorseCumnor4,645Abingdon and Oxford North1,4322201,5845800003,294
Vale of White HorseKennington and Radley5,081Abingdon and Oxford North1,8282951,7573800003,918
Vale of White HorseMarcham86Abingdon and Oxford North503451000099
Vale of White HorseThames737Wantage3372119490000561
Vale of White HorseWootton2,580Abingdon and Oxford North1,0201497761300001,958
 Total73,675 25,4387,57226,255753000060,018

The full details of these calculations are given on the Oxford West and Abingdon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wantage

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wantage, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WantageTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South OxfordshireCholsey6,597Wantage2,8201,1325201152080004,795
South OxfordshireDidcot North East6,805Wantage3,0652,0827541601040006,165
South OxfordshireDidcot South7,104Wantage2,6032,390721155920005,961
South OxfordshireDidcot West4,663Wantage1,4021,04231774430002,878
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams721Oxfordshire East34414587625000607
South OxfordshireWallingford5,625Wantage2,3761,4754951112130004,670
Vale of White HorseBlewbury and Harwell4,583Wantage1,82267138169480002,991
Vale of White HorseDrayton2,274Abingdon and Oxford North90540439743250001,774
Vale of White HorseFaringdon5,362Wantage2,1151,107809511700004,252
Vale of White HorseGrove North3,998Wantage1,52178268478450003,110
Vale of White HorseHendreds2,151Wantage1,03444816913230001,687
Vale of White HorseKingston Bagpuize2,555Wantage1,15433733918260001,874
Vale of White HorseMarcham2,072Abingdon and Oxford North1,39143354829270002,428
Vale of White HorseRidgeway2,355Wantage1,07234720417230001,663
Vale of White HorseStanford2,654Wantage1,24155921721290002,067
Vale of White HorseSteventon and the Hanneys2,444Wantage1,06438721043260001,730
Vale of White HorseSutton Courtenay2,086Wantage95644019738260001,657
Vale of White HorseThames1,797Wantage85226022825200001,385
Vale of White HorseWantage and Grove Brook5,138Wantage2,0951,02891999700004,211
Vale of White HorseWantage Charlton4,764Wantage1,931908641911560003,727
Vale of White HorseWatchfield and Shrivenham5,087Wantage2,695701398281440003,966
 Total80,835 34,45817,0789,2351,2841,54300063,598

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wantage seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Abingdon and Oxford North

The new seat of Abingdon and Oxford North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Abingdon and Oxford North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellKidlington North4,085Oxford West and Abingdon1,3793791,2617400003,093
CherwellKidlington South6,178Oxford West and Abingdon2,2166821,66911000004,677
CherwellKirtlington2,344Henley1,04846017463340071,786
CherwellYarnton, Gosford and Water Eaton3,496Oxford West and Abingdon1,4622718842900002,646
OxfordSt Margaret's4,089Oxford West and Abingdon1,0845851,4101600003,095
OxfordSummertown5,397Oxford West and Abingdon1,3145132,2362200004,085
OxfordWolvercote4,397Oxford West and Abingdon1,2833411,6861900003,329
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Abbey Northcourt4,667Oxford West and Abingdon1,5184141,5752500003,532
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Caldecott5,508Oxford West and Abingdon1,8495051,7288800004,170
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Dunmore4,599Oxford West and Abingdon1,6712601,5222900003,482
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Fitzharris4,780Oxford West and Abingdon1,6563801,5483500003,619
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Peachcroft5,254Oxford West and Abingdon1,8153561,7169000003,977
Vale of White HorseBotley and Sunningwell4,428Oxford West and Abingdon1,3742801,6395900003,352
Vale of White HorseCumnor4,352Oxford West and Abingdon1,4322201,5845800003,294
Vale of White HorseDrayton2,447Wantage90540439743250001,774
Vale of White HorseKennington and Radley5,177Oxford West and Abingdon1,8282951,7573800003,918
Vale of White HorseMarcham131Oxford West and Abingdon503451000099
Vale of White HorseMarcham3,351Wantage1,39143354829270002,428
Vale of White HorseWootton2,588Oxford West and Abingdon1,0201497761300001,958
 Total77,268 26,2956,93024,1558418600758,314

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Abingdon and Oxford North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (14-Mar-2024 12:19, Py3L, sc4008)